But the Fed still cautioned that economic activity would remain weak in the near term. However, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which forecast in April the recession would end this summer, believes there is now a growing consensus about that turnaround.

'But if you've waited until today to consider the idea that the recession is ending this summer, you're already behind the curve,' he was quoted as saying by CNNMoney.com.

Achuthan said it is very difficult to forecast a turn in the economy in real time, and that to try to make the distinction now between whether the economy turned higher in June or July is 'a false sense of precision'.

Economists say that the other reason that the start of the recovery is not a cause for celebration is it's not yet clear how strong this recovery will be.

And even some of the economists who believe the recovery has already started say this one will be more painful than a lot of recoveries in the past.