But, by accommodating notorious elements of the underworld in the BSP and by even describing them as Robin Hoods, she has shaken her base of support, especially the upper castes, which won her the last assembly election.

One of the reasons for the success of her rainbow coalition comprising Dalits and Brahmins was the widespread disquiet prior to the polls because of the prevailing lawlessness in Uttar Pradesh, which was ascribed to the failures of the then ruling Samajwadi Party.

Mayawati's tough image made all sections of the people support her in the expectation that she will crack down on the goons. But there has been one disappointment after another. First, the murder of an engineer who had resisted a collection drive for her lavish birthday parties created shock waves in the state and outside. Then came the hanging of a candidate for the parliamentary polls, who had apparently been 'advised' by the BSP to withdraw from the fray in its favour.

While factors such as these have been responsible for her sliding popularity, the signs of revival of the previously moribund Congress have clearly unnerved her. As much was evident from her castigation of Rahul Gandhi's attempt to woo the Dalits with the obviously baseless charge that he washed himself with a 'special soap' after spending time with members of the formerly untouchable community.

Joshi's arrest cannot be unrelated to Mayawati's fear that it is the Congress which poses a greater challenge to her in Uttar Pradesh than either the Bharatiya Janata Party or the Samajwadi Party. The return of the Congress to power at the centre with greater strength than before must have deepened her apprehensions that it may rebuild its old Brahmin-Dalit-Muslim alliance.

Considering that Mayawati has little to show in the matter of development in Uttar Pradesh in contrast to the much better show put up in neighbouring Bihar by the Janata Dal-United's Nitish Kumar, her fears about the Congress's rising prospects are not unfounded. But, instead of rectifying her mistakes, she has continued with her headstrong decision to build more statues and indiscriminately use the laws meant for specific use.

That her rainbow coalition is in tatters was evident from her post-poll decision to disband the bhaichara or friendship committees which had been constituted to encourage social harmony. Now, her emphasis is only on the Dalits. The latest step is clearly meant to placate them.

But the Indian voters have shown more than once that they are not easily deceived. Mayawati is likely to go down in history, therefore, as another Dalit leader who failed.

(18.07.2009-Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at aganguli@mail.com)